The questions people actually ask when they open this board.
| Why is every bet a different dollar amount? (Kelly Criterion) | Kelly is money management, not a crystal ball. Dumb version: if a number looks better than the true price, you bet a slice of the roll — not the same $25 every time. Bigger edge or better juice → a little more. Skinny edge → a little less. This board uses 1× Kelly (not half, not 2×). The green dollar on the card is that slice. Units = that amount ÷ $25 so you can compare tickets. Win rate does not set the size. ROI does. |
| What is ROI? | Return on Investment. Net profit after juice, divided by the dollars actually risked. That’s the grade. A 54% win rate can still lose money. |
| Why isn’t win rate the number you talk about? | Win rate is how often tickets cash. It ignores the price. Juice is a tax. ROI is what’s left after that tax. |
| What does +EV / Power mean? | Expected value — the model says this price is better than the sharp number. Power is that edge as a percent. Not a lock. 5% football has paid here; 3% often has not. |
| What is Width (or Weight)? | How many sharp books agree (Circa, Pinnacle). Width 1 = one sharp. Width 2 = two. It is not the bet size. |
| What is juice? | The book’s cut baked into the number (−110, −115). You have to beat that for ROI to stay green. |
| How do plus and minus odds work? | Minus (−110): risk $110 to win $100. Plus (+120): risk $100 to win $120. |
| What is a push? | Landed on the number. Stake comes back. Not a win, not a loss. |
| What is CLV? | Closing Line Value. Did we beat Pinnacle’s last number? That’s the honest check on +EV. Thin markets may show a dash if no close exists. |
| Is this a sportsbook? Can I bet here? | No. These are tickets already taken. Opinions and a record — not a place to place a wager. See the footer. |