The questions people actually ask when they open this board.
Win rate is a count. It does not know the price. At −110 you need about 52.4% just to break even. At −150 you need 60%. At +150 you can cash 45% and still be ahead. Kelly sizes the ticket off the edge and the juice, not a flat $25. A plus-money winner pays more units than a favorite loser costs. A book can sit under 55% and still show a strong ROI and a pile of units. The grade is ROI and units. Win rate is the count.
Kelly is money management, not a crystal ball. If a number looks better than the true price, you bet a slice of the roll — not the same $25 every time. Bigger edge or better juice → a little more. Skinny edge → a little less. This board uses 1× Kelly. The green dollar on the card is that slice. Units = that amount ÷ $25 so you can compare tickets. Win rate does not set the size. ROI does.
Props are off as their own book. Player props are high-variance and the sharp books are less efficient on them, so the edge is noisier than on sides and totals. I may post one for entertainment on a primetime or holiday marquee game. Those stay on the main board.
Return on Investment. Net profit after juice, divided by the dollars actually risked. That's the grade. Win rate is just the count.
How many of the sharp books (Circa and Pinnacle) are on the same side of the ticket. Width 2 means both. It is not a unit size.
The book's cut baked into the number (−110, −115). You have to beat that for ROI to stay green.
Minus (−110): risk $110 to win $100. Plus (+120): risk $100 to win $120.
Landed on the number. Stake comes back. Not a win, not a loss.
Closing Line Value. Did we beat Pinnacle's last number? That's the honest check on +EV. Thin markets may show a dash if no close exists.
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No. These are tickets already taken. Opinions and a record — not a place to place a wager. See the footer.